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Ural vs FK Sokol Saratov — First League 2018

Ural
Ural
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FK Sokol Saratov
FK Sokol Saratov
11/1/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 17Yekaterinburg Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Ural57%
×Draw25%
FK Sokol Saratov19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ural
1.63
FK Sokol Saratov
0.82

Ural creates 99% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 51 away

creates per match

Ural
1.71
FK Sokol Saratov
0.76

allows per match

Ural
0.89
FK Sokol Saratov
1.55

finishing

Ural+0.00on par
FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ural ↓

FK Sokol Saratov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ural or draw
81%
Ural or FK Sokol Saratov
75%
Draw or FK Sokol Saratov
43%

Winning margin

Ural wins by 2+
31%
FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ural 1+ goals
80%
Ural 2+ goals
48%
Ural 3+ goals
22%
FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals
56%
FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals
20%
FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ural (draw refunded)
75%
FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ural at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.89 · 35 matches

FK Sokol Saratov away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.55 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ural attack 1.71 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.63

FK Sokol Saratov attack 0.76 + Ural defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ural scores more
57%
level
25%
FK Sokol Saratov scores more
19%

Ural at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ural will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ural vs FK Sokol Saratov

Ural beat FK Sokol Saratov 2-0 in First League on November 1, 2025.

The match was played at Yekaterinburg Arena in Yekaterinburg.