Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ural vs FK Neftekhimik — First League 2018

Ural
Ural
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
FK Neftekhimik
FK Neftekhimik
M. Sekulić 81' (pen)
M. Beveev 76', 66'
R. Magomedov 41'
D. Emelyanov 31'
4/11/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 28Ekaterinburg Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Ural47%
×Draw27%
FK Neftekhimik26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ural
1.44
FK Neftekhimik
1.00

Ural creates 44% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 122 away

creates per match

Ural
1.71
FK Neftekhimik
1.11

allows per match

Ural
0.89
FK Neftekhimik
1.17

finishing

Ural+0.00on par
FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ural ↓

FK Neftekhimik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ural or draw
74%
Ural or FK Neftekhimik
73%
Draw or FK Neftekhimik
53%

Winning margin

Ural wins by 2+
23%
FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ural 1+ goals
76%
Ural 2+ goals
42%
Ural 3+ goals
18%
FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals
63%
FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals
26%
FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ural (draw refunded)
64%
FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ural at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.89 · 35 matches

FK Neftekhimik away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.17 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ural attack 1.71 + FK Neftekhimik defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.44

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.11 + Ural defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ural scores more
47%
level
27%
FK Neftekhimik scores more
26%

Ural at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ural will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
Rashid Magomedov
31'
D. Emelyanov
41'
R. Magomedov
46'
I. Chudin← F. Sungatulin
46'
E. Mosin← Artem Mamin
46'
A. Nikitin← R. Magomedov
49'
Ilya Ishkov
54'
N. Morozov← I. Ishkov
59'
M. Voronov← E. Markov
66'
M. Beveev
72'
M. Laykin← N. Abdokov
76'
M. Beveev
77'
K. Malyarov← K. Shiltsov
78'
Stanislav Bessmertniy
80'
Nikita Yanovich
81'
M. SekulićPenalty
88'
S. Aliev← E. Valiakhmetov
90'
T. Ayupov← A. Egorychev

Statistics

UralFK
Discipline
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

First League: Ural 3–2 FK Neftekhimik

Ural beat FK Neftekhimik 3-2 in First League on April 11, 2025.

Goals: D. Emelyanov (31'), R. Magomedov (41'), M. Beveev (66', 76'), M. Sekulić (81' pen).

The match was played at Ekaterinburg Arena in Ekaterinburg.