Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ural vs FC Sochi — First League 2018

Ural
Ural
Preview
15:00
FC Sochi
FC Sochi
4/3/2027First LeagueFirst League · Round 25Yekaterinburg Arena
Big match
42%
Ural
model favours
42%26%31%

Ural win just 30% against the top half (vs 67% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Ural42%
×Draw26%
FC Sochi31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ural
1.40
FC Sochi
1.17

Ural creates 20% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 38 away

creates per match

Ural
1.71
FC Sochi
1.45

allows per match

Ural
0.89
FC Sochi
1.08

finishing

Ural+0.00on par
FC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ural ↓

FC Sochi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ural or draw
69%
Ural or FC Sochi
74%
Draw or FC Sochi
58%

Winning margin

Ural wins by 2+
20%
FC Sochi wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ural 1+ goals
75%
Ural 2+ goals
41%
Ural 3+ goals
17%
FC Sochi 1+ goals
69%
FC Sochi 2+ goals
33%
FC Sochi 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ural (draw refunded)
57%
FC Sochi (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ural at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.89 · 35 matches

FC Sochi away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ural attack 1.71 + FC Sochi defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.40

FC Sochi attack 1.45 + Ural defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ural scores more
42%
level
26%
FC Sochi scores more
31%

Ural at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ural will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Ural
LDWLL
Sochi
DLWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ural vs FC Sochi — Match Preview

Ural face FC Sochi on April 3, 2027 in this First League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Ural host FC Sochi at Yekaterinburg Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.