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FC Sochi vs Ural — First League 2018

FC Sochi
FC Sochi
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ural
Ural
3/9/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 23Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

FC Sochi48%
×Draw26%
Ural26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Sochi
1.50
Ural
1.03

FC Sochi creates 46% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 34 away

creates per match

FC Sochi
1.84
Ural
1.21

allows per match

FC Sochi
0.86
Ural
1.15

finishing

FC Sochi+0.00on par
Ural+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Sochi ↓

Ural →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FC Sochi or draw
74%
FC Sochi or Ural
74%
Draw or Ural
52%

Winning margin

FC Sochi wins by 2+
24%
Ural wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC Sochi 1+ goals
78%
FC Sochi 2+ goals
44%
FC Sochi 3+ goals
19%
Ural 1+ goals
64%
Ural 2+ goals
28%
Ural 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FC Sochi (draw refunded)
65%
Ural (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Sochi at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.86 · 37 matches

Ural away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Sochi attack 1.84 + Ural defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.50

Ural attack 1.21 + FC Sochi defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC Sochi scores more
48%
level
26%
Ural scores more
26%

FC Sochi at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Sochi vs Ural

FC Sochi beat Ural 1-0 in First League on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht in Sochi.