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Ural vs Dinamo Moscow — Premier League 2022

Ural
Ural
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Moscow
Dinamo Moscow
F. Sungatulin 89' (OG)
3/18/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20Ekaterinburg Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Ural32%
×Draw25%
Dinamo Moscow43%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ural
1.33
Dinamo Moscow
1.57

Dinamo Moscow creates 18% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 60 away

creates per match

Ural
1.23
Dinamo Moscow
1.63

allows per match

Ural
1.51
Dinamo Moscow
1.43

finishing

Ural+0.00on par
Dinamo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ural ↓

Dinamo Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Ural or draw
57%
Ural or Dinamo Moscow
75%
Draw or Dinamo Moscow
68%

Winning margin

Ural wins by 2+
14%
Dinamo Moscow wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Ural 1+ goals
74%
Ural 2+ goals
38%
Ural 3+ goals
15%
Dinamo Moscow 1+ goals
79%
Dinamo Moscow 2+ goals
46%
Dinamo Moscow 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Ural (draw refunded)
43%
Dinamo Moscow (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ural at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.51 · 35 matches

Dinamo Moscow away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.43 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ural attack 1.23 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.33

Dinamo Moscow attack 1.63 + Ural defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ural scores more
32%
level
25%
Dinamo Moscow scores more
43%

Dinamo Moscow at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dinamo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
D. KulakovUralUral · D
7.9

Match Events

56'
Y. Gladyshev← V. Grulev
61'
Lazar Ranđelović
65'
A. Yushin← A. Egorychev
65'
M. Beveev← L. Goglichidze
65'
Y. Zheleznov← L. Ranđelović
78'
F. Sungatulin← A. Kashtanov
86'
S. Parshivlyuk← D. Skopintsev
89'
F. SungatulinOwn goal
90+5'
Arsen Zakharyan
90+1'
E. Tatarinov← D. Miškić
90+2'
M. Majstorović← D. Makarov

Possession

50%Ural

Shots

12Ural

Pass accuracy

50%Ural

Statistics

UralDinamo
Overview
50%Possession50%
12Total Shots10
6Corners9
7Fouls10
Shots
12Total Shots10
3On Target3
3Off Target3
6Blocked4
4Inside Box7
8Outside Box3
Passing
50%Possession50%
367Total Passes369
239Accurate Passes243
65%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
7Fouls10
1Yellow Cards1
4Offsides5

Premier League: Ural 0–1 Dinamo Moscow

Dinamo Moscow beat Ural 1-0 in Premier League on March 18, 2023.

Goals: F. Sungatulin (89' o.g.).

Ural controlled possession (50%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Ekaterinburg Arena in Ekaterinburg.