Ural 1–1 Dinamo Moscow: Result & Stats

Ural

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dinamo Moscow

E. Bicfalvi 54'

E. Markov 85'

8/10/2018

Premier League · Round 3Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Ural34%

×Draw26%

Dinamo Moscow39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UralExpected goals in this matchDinamo Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.36

Ural

1.25

Dinamo Moscow

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 120 away

1.12

creates per match

1.41

1.31

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Ural

1.12

Dinamo Moscow

1.41

allows per match

Ural

1.31

Dinamo Moscow

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ural+0.00on par

Dinamo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ural ↓

Dinamo Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Ural or draw

61%

Ural or Dinamo Moscow

74%

Draw or Dinamo Moscow

66%

Winning margin

Ural wins by 2+

15%

Dinamo Moscow wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Ural 1+ goals

71%

Ural 2+ goals

36%

Ural 3+ goals

13%

Dinamo Moscow 1+ goals

74%

Dinamo Moscow 2+ goals

39%

Dinamo Moscow 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Ural (draw refunded)

47%

Dinamo Moscow (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ural at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.31 · 93 matches

Dinamo Moscow away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.37 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ural attack 1.12 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.25

Dinamo Moscow attack 1.41 + Ural defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ural scores more

34%

level

26%

Dinamo Moscow scores more

39%

Dinamo Moscow at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dinamo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

N. Dimitrov

Ural · M

8.3

Match Events

43'

Roman Emelyanov

54'

E. Bicfalvi↳ N. Dimitrov

62'

A. Sosnin← S. Holmén

72'

A. Egorychev← V. Ilyin

79'

A. Dantsev← A. Evseev

81'

E. Markov← K. Panchenko

83'

Anton Sosnin

83'

I. Temnikov← K. Rausch

85'

E. Markov↳ E. Lutsenko

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UralDinamo

Overview

50%Possession50%

12Total Shots12

4Corners3

14Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots12

3On Target2

6Off Target8

3Blocked2

8Inside Box7

4Outside Box5

Passing

50%Possession50%

434Total Passes428

328Accurate Passes305

76%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

3Offsides1