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Ural U20 vs Rotor Volgograd U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Ural U20
Ural U20
FT
0 – 2
Rotor Volgograd U20
Rotor Volgograd U20
S. Batyutin 89'
Y. Shcherbin 40'
4/28/2021Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Lower Table Round - 5Sport Baza Bazhoviya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ural U2038%
×Draw22%
Rotor Volgograd U2040%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ural U20
1.75
Rotor Volgograd U20
1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 99 home / 14 away

creates per match

Ural U20
1.57
Rotor Volgograd U20
1.57

allows per match

Ural U20
2.05
Rotor Volgograd U20
1.93

finishing

Ural U20+0.00on par
Rotor Volgograd U20+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ural U20 ↓

Rotor Volgograd U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Ural U20 or draw
60%
Ural U20 or Rotor Volgograd U20
78%
Draw or Rotor Volgograd U20
62%

Winning margin

Ural U20 wins by 2+
19%
Rotor Volgograd U20 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Ural U20 1+ goals
83%
Ural U20 2+ goals
52%
Ural U20 3+ goals
25%
Rotor Volgograd U20 1+ goals
84%
Rotor Volgograd U20 2+ goals
54%
Rotor Volgograd U20 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Ural U20 (draw refunded)
48%
Rotor Volgograd U20 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ural U20 at home — creates 1.57, concedes 2.05 · 99 matches

Rotor Volgograd U20 away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ural U20 attack 1.57 + Rotor Volgograd U20 defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.75

Rotor Volgograd U20 attack 1.57 + Ural U20 defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ural U20 scores more
38%
level
22%
Rotor Volgograd U20 scores more
40%

Rotor Volgograd U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rotor Volgograd U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
Y. Shcherbin
89'
S. Batyutin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Ural U20 0–2 Rotor Volgograd U20

Rotor Volgograd U20 beat Ural U20 2-0 in Youth Championship on April 28, 2021.

Goals: Y. Shcherbin (40'), S. Batyutin (89').

The match was played at Sport Baza Bazhoviya in Sysert.