Ural U20 2–0 Orenburg U19: Result & Stats

Ural U20

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Orenburg U19

9/15/2023

Youth Championship · Round 10Sport Baza Bazhoviya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ural U2053%

×Draw21%

Orenburg U1926%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ural U20Expected goals in this matchOrenburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.42

Ural U20

2.12

Orenburg U19

1.42

Ural U20 creates 49% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 38 away

1.57

creates per match

0.79

2.05

allows per match

2.66

creates per match

Ural U20

1.57

Orenburg U19

0.79

allows per match

Ural U20

2.05

Orenburg U19

2.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ural U20+0.00on par

Orenburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ural U20 ↓

Orenburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Ural U20 or draw

74%

Ural U20 or Orenburg U19

79%

Draw or Orenburg U19

47%

Winning margin

Ural U20 wins by 2+

32%

Orenburg U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ural U20 1+ goals

88%

Ural U20 2+ goals

62%

Ural U20 3+ goals

35%

Orenburg U19 1+ goals

76%

Orenburg U19 2+ goals

41%

Orenburg U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Ural U20 (draw refunded)

68%

Orenburg U19 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ural U20 at home — creates 1.57, concedes 2.05 · 99 matches

Orenburg U19 away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.66 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ural U20 attack 1.57 + Orenburg U19 defence 2.66 → ÷2 → 2.12

Orenburg U19 attack 0.79 + Ural U20 defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ural U20 scores more

53%

level

21%

Orenburg U19 scores more

26%

Ural U20 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ural U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff