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Ural U20 vs CSKA Moskva U19 — Youth Championship 2026

Ural U20
Ural U20
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
CSKA Moskva U19
CSKA Moskva U19
3/29/2024Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 3Sport Baza Bazhoviya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Ural U2023%
×Draw21%
CSKA Moskva U1956%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ural U20
1.33
CSKA Moskva U19
2.15

CSKA Moskva U19 creates 62% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 81 away

creates per match

Ural U20
1.57
CSKA Moskva U19
2.25

allows per match

Ural U20
2.05
CSKA Moskva U19
1.10

finishing

Ural U20+0.00on par
CSKA Moskva U19+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ural U20 ↓

CSKA Moskva U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Ural U20 or draw
44%
Ural U20 or CSKA Moskva U19
79%
Draw or CSKA Moskva U19
77%

Winning margin

Ural U20 wins by 2+
10%
CSKA Moskva U19 wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Ural U20 1+ goals
74%
Ural U20 2+ goals
38%
Ural U20 3+ goals
15%
CSKA Moskva U19 1+ goals
88%
CSKA Moskva U19 2+ goals
63%
CSKA Moskva U19 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Ural U20 (draw refunded)
29%
CSKA Moskva U19 (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ural U20 at home — creates 1.57, concedes 2.05 · 99 matches

CSKA Moskva U19 away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.10 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ural U20 attack 1.57 + CSKA Moskva U19 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.33

CSKA Moskva U19 attack 2.25 + Ural U20 defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ural U20 scores more
23%
level
21%
CSKA Moskva U19 scores more
56%

CSKA Moskva U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "CSKA Moskva U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ural U20 vs CSKA Moskva U19

CSKA Moskva U19 beat Ural U20 5-0 in Youth Championship on March 29, 2024.

The match was played at Sport Baza Bazhoviya in Sysert.