Ural II 4–3 Lada Tolyatti: Result & Stats

Ural II

FT

4 – 3

HT: 3 – 1

Lada Tolyatti

9/18/2021

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 10Sport Baza Bazhoviya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Ural II61%

×Draw20%

Lada Tolyatti19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ural IIExpected goals in this matchLada Tolyatti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.11

Ural II

2.15

Lada Tolyatti

1.11

Ural II creates 94% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 41 away

1.36

creates per match

0.71

1.51

allows per match

2.93

creates per match

Ural II

1.36

Lada Tolyatti

0.71

allows per match

Ural II

1.51

Lada Tolyatti

2.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ural II+0.00on par

Lada Tolyatti+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ural II ↓

Lada Tolyatti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Ural II or draw

81%

Ural II or Lada Tolyatti

80%

Draw or Lada Tolyatti

39%

Winning margin

Ural II wins by 2+

38%

Lada Tolyatti wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ural II 1+ goals

88%

Ural II 2+ goals

63%

Ural II 3+ goals

36%

Lada Tolyatti 1+ goals

67%

Lada Tolyatti 2+ goals

30%

Lada Tolyatti 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ural II (draw refunded)

76%

Lada Tolyatti (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ural II at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.51 · 84 matches

Lada Tolyatti away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.93 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ural II attack 1.36 + Lada Tolyatti defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.15

Lada Tolyatti attack 0.71 + Ural II defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Ural II scores more

61%

level

20%

Lada Tolyatti scores more

19%

Ural II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Ural II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff