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Ural II vs Lada Dimitrovgrad — Second League - Group 4 2020

Ural II
Ural II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Lada Dimitrovgrad
Lada Dimitrovgrad
10/31/2020Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 14Sport Baza Bazhoviya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ural II36%
×Draw25%
Lada Dimitrovgrad39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ural II
1.43
Lada Dimitrovgrad
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 14 away

creates per match

Ural II
1.36
Lada Dimitrovgrad
1.50

allows per match

Ural II
1.51
Lada Dimitrovgrad
1.50

finishing

Ural II+0.00on par
Lada Dimitrovgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ural II ↓

Lada Dimitrovgrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Ural II or draw
61%
Ural II or Lada Dimitrovgrad
75%
Draw or Lada Dimitrovgrad
64%

Winning margin

Ural II wins by 2+
17%
Lada Dimitrovgrad wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Ural II 1+ goals
76%
Ural II 2+ goals
42%
Ural II 3+ goals
17%
Lada Dimitrovgrad 1+ goals
78%
Lada Dimitrovgrad 2+ goals
44%
Lada Dimitrovgrad 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Ural II (draw refunded)
48%
Lada Dimitrovgrad (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ural II at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.51 · 84 matches

Lada Dimitrovgrad away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ural II attack 1.36 + Lada Dimitrovgrad defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.43

Lada Dimitrovgrad attack 1.50 + Ural II defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ural II scores more
36%
level
25%
Lada Dimitrovgrad scores more
39%

Lada Dimitrovgrad at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lada Dimitrovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 4: Ural II 2–2 Lada Dimitrovgrad

Ural II and Lada Dimitrovgrad drew 2-2 in Second League - Group 4 on October 31, 2020.

The match was played at Sport Baza Bazhoviya in Sysert.