URA 6–1 Tooro United: Result & Stats

URA

FT

6 – 1

Tooro United

11/23/2021

Premier League · Round 1Ndejje Uni - Luwero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

URA70%

×Draw19%

Tooro United11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

URAExpected goals in this matchTooro United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

0.68

URA

2.09

Tooro United

0.68

URA creates 207% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 27 away

1.51

creates per match

0.59

0.76

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

URA

1.51

Tooro United

0.59

allows per match

URA

0.76

Tooro United

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

URA+0.00on par

Tooro United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

URA ↓

Tooro United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

URA or draw

89%

URA or Tooro United

81%

Draw or Tooro United

30%

Winning margin

URA wins by 2+

45%

Tooro United wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

URA 1+ goals

88%

URA 2+ goals

62%

URA 3+ goals

34%

Tooro United 1+ goals

49%

Tooro United 2+ goals

15%

Tooro United 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

URA (draw refunded)

86%

Tooro United (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

URA at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.76 · 100 matches

Tooro United away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.67 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

URA attack 1.51 + Tooro United defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.09

Tooro United attack 0.59 + URA defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

URA scores more

70%

level

19%

Tooro United scores more

11%

URA at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "URA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff