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URA vs SC Villa — Premier League 2019

URA
URA
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
SC Villa
SC Villa
3/27/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22Ndejje Uni - Luwero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

URA45%
×Draw29%
SC Villa26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

URA
1.24
SC Villa
0.88

URA creates 41% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 99 away

creates per match

URA
1.51
SC Villa
0.99

allows per match

URA
0.76
SC Villa
0.97

finishing

URA+0.00on par
SC Villa+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

URA ↓

SC Villa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

URA or draw
74%
URA or SC Villa
71%
Draw or SC Villa
55%

Winning margin

URA wins by 2+
20%
SC Villa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

URA 1+ goals
71%
URA 2+ goals
35%
URA 3+ goals
13%
SC Villa 1+ goals
59%
SC Villa 2+ goals
22%
SC Villa 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

URA (draw refunded)
63%
SC Villa (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

URA at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.76 · 100 matches

SC Villa away — creates 0.99, concedes 0.97 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

URA attack 1.51 + SC Villa defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.24

SC Villa attack 0.99 + URA defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

URA scores more
45%
level
29%
SC Villa scores more
26%

URA at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "URA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

URA 3 – 1 SC Villa

URA beat SC Villa 3-1 in Premier League on March 27, 2022.

The match was played at Ndejje Uni - Luwero in Luwero.