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SC Villa vs URA — Premier League 2019

SC Villa
SC Villa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
URA
URA
1/4/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Luzira Maximum Prisons Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

SC Villa43%
×Draw29%
URA28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Villa
1.23
URA
0.94

SC Villa creates 31% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 98 away

creates per match

SC Villa
1.49
URA
1.13

allows per match

SC Villa
0.76
URA
0.96

finishing

SC Villa+0.00on par
URA+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Villa ↓

URA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

SC Villa or draw
72%
SC Villa or URA
71%
Draw or URA
57%

Winning margin

SC Villa wins by 2+
19%
URA wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

SC Villa 1+ goals
71%
SC Villa 2+ goals
35%
SC Villa 3+ goals
13%
URA 1+ goals
61%
URA 2+ goals
24%
URA 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

SC Villa (draw refunded)
60%
URA (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Villa at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.76 · 99 matches

URA away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.96 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Villa attack 1.49 + URA defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.23

URA attack 1.13 + SC Villa defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SC Villa scores more
43%
level
29%
URA scores more
28%

SC Villa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SC Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SC Villa vs URA

SC Villa beat URA 1-0 in Premier League on January 4, 2025.

The match was played at Luzira Maximum Prisons Stadium in Kampala.