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URA vs Mbarara City — Premier League 2019

URA
URA
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mbarara City
Mbarara City
9/28/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Hamz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

URA57%
×Draw25%
Mbarara City18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

URA
1.56
Mbarara City
0.74

URA creates 111% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 86 away

creates per match

URA
1.51
Mbarara City
0.72

allows per match

URA
0.76
Mbarara City
1.60

finishing

URA+0.00on par
Mbarara City+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

URA ↓

Mbarara City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

URA or draw
82%
URA or Mbarara City
75%
Draw or Mbarara City
43%

Winning margin

URA wins by 2+
30%
Mbarara City wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

URA 1+ goals
79%
URA 2+ goals
46%
URA 3+ goals
21%
Mbarara City 1+ goals
52%
Mbarara City 2+ goals
17%
Mbarara City 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

URA (draw refunded)
76%
Mbarara City (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

URA at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.76 · 100 matches

Mbarara City away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.60 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

URA attack 1.51 + Mbarara City defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.56

Mbarara City attack 0.72 + URA defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

URA scores more
57%
level
25%
Mbarara City scores more
18%

URA at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "URA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: URA vs Mbarara City

URA and Mbarara City drew 1-1 in Premier League on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Hamz Stadium in Kampala.