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URA vs Gaddafi — Premier League 2019

URA
URA
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gaddafi
Gaddafi
2/12/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Ndejje Uni - Luwero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

URA60%
×Draw24%
Gaddafi16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

URA
1.67
Gaddafi
0.71

URA creates 135% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 44 away

creates per match

URA
1.51
Gaddafi
0.66

allows per match

URA
0.76
Gaddafi
1.82

finishing

URA+0.00on par
Gaddafi+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

URA ↓

Gaddafi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

URA or draw
84%
URA or Gaddafi
76%
Draw or Gaddafi
40%

Winning margin

URA wins by 2+
34%
Gaddafi wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

URA 1+ goals
81%
URA 2+ goals
50%
URA 3+ goals
23%
Gaddafi 1+ goals
51%
Gaddafi 2+ goals
16%
Gaddafi 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

URA (draw refunded)
79%
Gaddafi (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

URA at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.76 · 100 matches

Gaddafi away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.82 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

URA attack 1.51 + Gaddafi defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.67

Gaddafi attack 0.66 + URA defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

URA scores more
60%
level
24%
Gaddafi scores more
16%

URA at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "URA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: URA vs Gaddafi

URA beat Gaddafi 2-1 in Premier League on February 12, 2022.

The match was played at Ndejje Uni - Luwero in Luwero.