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URA vs Bright Stars — Premier League 2019

URA
URA
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bright Stars
Bright Stars
5/18/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 30Betway Muteesa II Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

URA52%
×Draw27%
Bright Stars21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

URA
1.46
Bright Stars
0.81

URA creates 80% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 83 away

creates per match

URA
1.51
Bright Stars
0.86

allows per match

URA
0.76
Bright Stars
1.41

finishing

URA+0.00on par
Bright Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

URA ↓

Bright Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

URA or draw
79%
URA or Bright Stars
73%
Draw or Bright Stars
48%

Winning margin

URA wins by 2+
26%
Bright Stars wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

URA 1+ goals
77%
URA 2+ goals
43%
URA 3+ goals
18%
Bright Stars 1+ goals
56%
Bright Stars 2+ goals
19%
Bright Stars 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

URA (draw refunded)
72%
Bright Stars (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

URA at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.76 · 100 matches

Bright Stars away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.41 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

URA attack 1.51 + Bright Stars defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.46

Bright Stars attack 0.86 + URA defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

URA scores more
52%
level
27%
Bright Stars scores more
21%

URA at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "URA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: URA 1–1 Bright Stars

URA and Bright Stars drew 1-1 in Premier League on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Betway Muteesa II Stadium in Kampala.