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URA vs Blacks Power — Premier League 2019

URA
URA
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Blacks Power
Blacks Power
12/2/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Nakisunga Saaza Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

URA61%
×Draw24%
Blacks Power15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

URA
1.65
Blacks Power
0.67

URA creates 146% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 14 away

creates per match

URA
1.51
Blacks Power
0.57

allows per match

URA
0.76
Blacks Power
1.79

finishing

URA+0.00on par
Blacks Power+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

URA ↓

Blacks Power →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

URA or draw
85%
URA or Blacks Power
76%
Draw or Blacks Power
39%

Winning margin

URA wins by 2+
34%
Blacks Power wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

URA 1+ goals
81%
URA 2+ goals
49%
URA 3+ goals
23%
Blacks Power 1+ goals
49%
Blacks Power 2+ goals
15%
Blacks Power 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

URA (draw refunded)
80%
Blacks Power (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

URA at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.76 · 100 matches

Blacks Power away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

URA attack 1.51 + Blacks Power defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.65

Blacks Power attack 0.57 + URA defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

URA scores more
61%
level
24%
Blacks Power scores more
15%

URA at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "URA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: URA vs Blacks Power

URA and Blacks Power drew 0-0 in Premier League on December 2, 2022.

The match was played at Nakisunga Saaza Ground in Mukono.