Urædd 0–3 Pors Grenland: Result & Stats

Urædd

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Pors Grenland

8/6/2022

3. Division - Girone 4 · Girone 4 - 15Urædd KG

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Urædd15%

×Draw17%

Pors Grenland68%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UræddExpected goals in this matchPors Grenland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

2.71

Urædd

1.23

Pors Grenland

2.71

Pors Grenland creates 120% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

1.08

creates per match

2.81

2.62

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Urædd

1.08

Pors Grenland

2.81

allows per match

Urædd

2.62

Pors Grenland

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Urædd+0.00on par

Pors Grenland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urædd ↓

Pors Grenland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–02%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Urædd or draw

32%

Urædd or Pors Grenland

83%

Draw or Pors Grenland

85%

Winning margin

Urædd wins by 2+

6%

Pors Grenland wins by 2+

47%

Team goals

Urædd 1+ goals

71%

Urædd 2+ goals

35%

Urædd 3+ goals

13%

Pors Grenland 1+ goals

93%

Pors Grenland 2+ goals

75%

Pors Grenland 3+ goals

50%

Draw no bet

Urædd (draw refunded)

18%

Pors Grenland (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urædd at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

Pors Grenland away — creates 2.81, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urædd attack 1.08 + Pors Grenland defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.23

Pors Grenland attack 2.81 + Urædd defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Urædd scores more

15%

level

17%

Pors Grenland scores more

68%

Pors Grenland at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Pors Grenland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff