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Urædd vs Mandalskameratene — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Urædd
Urædd
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mandalskameratene
Mandalskameratene
7/23/20223. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Girone 4 - 13Urædd KG

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Urædd26%
×Draw20%
Mandalskameratene54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urædd
1.58
Mandalskameratene
2.35

Mandalskameratene creates 49% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 32 away

creates per match

Urædd
1.08
Mandalskameratene
2.09

allows per match

Urædd
2.62
Mandalskameratene
2.09

finishing

Urædd+0.00on par
Mandalskameratene+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urædd ↓

Mandalskameratene →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Urædd or draw
46%
Urædd or Mandalskameratene
80%
Draw or Mandalskameratene
74%

Winning margin

Urædd wins by 2+
12%
Mandalskameratene wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Urædd 1+ goals
79%
Urædd 2+ goals
47%
Urædd 3+ goals
21%
Mandalskameratene 1+ goals
90%
Mandalskameratene 2+ goals
68%
Mandalskameratene 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Urædd (draw refunded)
32%
Mandalskameratene (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urædd at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

Mandalskameratene away — creates 2.09, concedes 2.09 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urædd attack 1.08 + Mandalskameratene defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.58

Mandalskameratene attack 2.09 + Urædd defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Urædd scores more
26%
level
20%
Mandalskameratene scores more
54%

Mandalskameratene at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Mandalskameratene will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 4: Urædd 0–0 Mandalskameratene

Urædd and Mandalskameratene drew 0-0 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on July 23, 2022.

The match was played at Urædd KG in Porsgrunn.