Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Urædd vs Halsen — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Urædd
Urædd
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Halsen
Halsen
4/30/20223. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Girone 4 - 4Urædd KG

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Urædd36%
×Draw21%
Halsen43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urædd
1.89
Halsen
2.08

Halsen creates 10% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Urædd
1.08
Halsen
1.54

allows per match

Urædd
2.62
Halsen
2.69

finishing

Urædd+0.00on par
Halsen+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urædd ↓

Halsen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Urædd or draw
57%
Urædd or Halsen
79%
Draw or Halsen
64%

Winning margin

Urædd wins by 2+
19%
Halsen wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Urædd 1+ goals
85%
Urædd 2+ goals
56%
Urædd 3+ goals
29%
Halsen 1+ goals
87%
Halsen 2+ goals
61%
Halsen 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Urædd (draw refunded)
45%
Halsen (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urædd at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

Halsen away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.69 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urædd attack 1.08 + Halsen defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 1.89

Halsen attack 1.54 + Urædd defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Urædd scores more
36%
level
21%
Halsen scores more
43%

Halsen at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Halsen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 4: Urædd 1–4 Halsen

Halsen beat Urædd 4-1 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Urædd KG in Porsgrunn.