Urædd 1–7 Fredrikstad II: Result & Stats

Urædd

FT

1 – 7

HT: 0 – 4

Fredrikstad II

10/23/2022

3. Division - Girone 4 · Girone 4 - 26Urædd KG

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Urædd28%

×Draw20%

Fredrikstad II52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UræddExpected goals in this matchFredrikstad II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

2.37

Urædd

1.72

Fredrikstad II

2.37

Fredrikstad II creates 38% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

1.08

creates per match

2.12

2.62

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

Urædd

1.08

Fredrikstad II

2.12

allows per match

Urædd

2.62

Fredrikstad II

2.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Urædd+0.00on par

Fredrikstad II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urædd ↓

Fredrikstad II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Urædd or draw

48%

Urædd or Fredrikstad II

80%

Draw or Fredrikstad II

72%

Winning margin

Urædd wins by 2+

14%

Fredrikstad II wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Urædd 1+ goals

82%

Urædd 2+ goals

51%

Urædd 3+ goals

25%

Fredrikstad II 1+ goals

91%

Fredrikstad II 2+ goals

68%

Fredrikstad II 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Urædd (draw refunded)

35%

Fredrikstad II (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urædd at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

Fredrikstad II away — creates 2.12, concedes 2.35 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urædd attack 1.08 + Fredrikstad II defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.72

Fredrikstad II attack 2.12 + Urædd defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Urædd scores more

28%

level

20%

Fredrikstad II scores more

52%

Fredrikstad II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Fredrikstad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff