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Urædd vs Express — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Urædd
Urædd
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Express
Express
10/8/20223. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Girone 4 - 24Urædd KG

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Urædd41%
×Draw21%
Express38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urædd
2.08
Express
2.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Urædd
1.08
Express
1.38

allows per match

Urædd
2.62
Express
3.08

finishing

Urædd+0.00on par
Express+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urædd ↓

Express →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Urædd or draw
62%
Urædd or Express
79%
Draw or Express
59%

Winning margin

Urædd wins by 2+
23%
Express wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Urædd 1+ goals
87%
Urædd 2+ goals
61%
Urædd 3+ goals
34%
Express 1+ goals
86%
Express 2+ goals
59%
Express 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Urædd (draw refunded)
52%
Express (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urædd at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

Express away — creates 1.38, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urædd attack 1.08 + Express defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.08

Express attack 1.38 + Urædd defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Urædd scores more
41%
level
21%
Express scores more
38%

Urædd at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Urædd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Urædd vs Express

Express beat Urædd 3-1 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Urædd KG in Porsgrunn.