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Uppsala W vs Morön W — Elitettan 2021

Uppsala W
Uppsala W
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Morön W
Morön W
8/22/2021ElitettanElitettan · Round 16Studenternas IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Uppsala W64%
×Draw19%
Morön W17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uppsala W
2.37
Morön W
1.14

Uppsala W creates 108% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 26 away

creates per match

Uppsala W
2.42
Morön W
1.19

allows per match

Uppsala W
1.08
Morön W
2.31

finishing

Uppsala W+0.00on par
Morön W+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uppsala W ↓

Morön W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Uppsala W or draw
83%
Uppsala W or Morön W
81%
Draw or Morön W
36%

Winning margin

Uppsala W wins by 2+
42%
Morön W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Uppsala W 1+ goals
91%
Uppsala W 2+ goals
68%
Uppsala W 3+ goals
42%
Morön W 1+ goals
68%
Morön W 2+ goals
32%
Morön W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Uppsala W (draw refunded)
79%
Morön W (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uppsala W at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.08 · 53 matches

Morön W away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.31 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uppsala W attack 2.42 + Morön W defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.37

Morön W attack 1.19 + Uppsala W defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Uppsala W scores more
64%
level
19%
Morön W scores more
17%

Uppsala W at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Uppsala W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elitettan: Uppsala W 2–2 Morön W

Uppsala W and Morön W drew 2-2 in Elitettan on August 22, 2021.

The match was played at Studenternas IP in Uppsala.