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Uppsala W vs KIF Örebro W — Elitettan 2021

Uppsala W
Uppsala W
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
KIF Örebro W
KIF Örebro W
8/16/2025ElitettanElitettan · Round 14Studenternas IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Uppsala W39%
×Draw22%
KIF Örebro W39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uppsala W
1.81
KIF Örebro W
1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 19 away

creates per match

Uppsala W
2.42
KIF Örebro W
2.58

allows per match

Uppsala W
1.08
KIF Örebro W
1.21

finishing

Uppsala W+0.00on par
KIF Örebro W+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uppsala W ↓

KIF Örebro W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Uppsala W or draw
61%
Uppsala W or KIF Örebro W
78%
Draw or KIF Örebro W
61%

Winning margin

Uppsala W wins by 2+
20%
KIF Örebro W wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Uppsala W 1+ goals
84%
Uppsala W 2+ goals
54%
Uppsala W 3+ goals
27%
KIF Örebro W 1+ goals
84%
KIF Örebro W 2+ goals
54%
KIF Örebro W 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Uppsala W (draw refunded)
49%
KIF Örebro W (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uppsala W at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.08 · 53 matches

KIF Örebro W away — creates 2.58, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uppsala W attack 2.42 + KIF Örebro W defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.81

KIF Örebro W attack 2.58 + Uppsala W defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Uppsala W scores more
39%
level
22%
KIF Örebro W scores more
39%

Uppsala W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Uppsala W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Uppsala W vs KIF Örebro W

KIF Örebro W beat Uppsala W 4-0 in Elitettan on August 16, 2025.

The match was played at Studenternas IP in Uppsala.