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Uppsala W vs Häcken II W — Elitettan 2021

Uppsala W
Uppsala W
FT
5 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Häcken II W
Häcken II W
11/15/2025ElitettanElitettan · Round 26Studenternas IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Uppsala W65%
×Draw19%
Häcken II W16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uppsala W
2.33
Häcken II W
1.07

Uppsala W creates 118% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 31 away

creates per match

Uppsala W
2.42
Häcken II W
1.06

allows per match

Uppsala W
1.08
Häcken II W
2.23

finishing

Uppsala W+0.00on par
Häcken II W+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uppsala W ↓

Häcken II W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Uppsala W or draw
84%
Uppsala W or Häcken II W
81%
Draw or Häcken II W
35%

Winning margin

Uppsala W wins by 2+
42%
Häcken II W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Uppsala W 1+ goals
90%
Uppsala W 2+ goals
67%
Uppsala W 3+ goals
41%
Häcken II W 1+ goals
66%
Häcken II W 2+ goals
29%
Häcken II W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Uppsala W (draw refunded)
80%
Häcken II W (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uppsala W at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.08 · 53 matches

Häcken II W away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.23 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uppsala W attack 2.42 + Häcken II W defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.33

Häcken II W attack 1.06 + Uppsala W defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Uppsala W scores more
65%
level
19%
Häcken II W scores more
16%

Uppsala W at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Uppsala W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Uppsala W vs Häcken II W

Uppsala W beat Häcken II W 5-2 in Elitettan on November 15, 2025.

The match was played at Studenternas IP in Uppsala.