UPI-ONM vs Tonnerre — Championnat National 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 90+ matches
UPI-ONM34%
Tonnerre36%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 90 home / 90 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under66
- Over34
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No59
- Yes41
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
UPI-ONM ↓
Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
UPI-ONM at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.32 · 90 matches
Tonnerre away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.06 · 90 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
UPI-ONM attack 0.94 + Tonnerre defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00
Tonnerre attack 0.78 + UPI-ONM defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.05
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 36%?"
Tonnerre at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 36% does not mean "Tonnerre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
AS Sobemap
Coton Sport Ouidah
ASPAC
Loto Popo
Buffles
Dynamo Abomey
Espoir Savalou
AS Cotonou
Hodio
Damissa
ASVO
Ayema
Kraké
Bani Gansè
Dragons
Cavaliers
JSP
DadjèIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
UPI-ONM host Tonnerre on Saturday, 4 April 2020 at 15:00. The match is part of the Championnat National 2019/2020 season.
UPI-ONM vs Tonnerre — Match Preview
UPI-ONM face Tonnerre on April 4, 2020 in this Championnat National fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.
UPI-ONM host Tonnerre at Terrain Campus Abomey Calavi.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.