Tonnerre 1–0 UPI-ONM: Result & Stats

Tonnerre

FT

1 – 0

UPI-ONM

11/24/2019

Championnat National · Round 6Stade Omnisports Paulin Tomanaga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Tonnerre49%

×Draw28%

UPI-ONM23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TonnerreExpected goals in this matchUPI-ONM

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.80

Tonnerre

1.32

UPI-ONM

0.80

Tonnerre creates 65% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 88 away

1.04

creates per match

0.73

0.87

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Tonnerre

1.04

UPI-ONM

0.73

allows per match

Tonnerre

0.87

UPI-ONM

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tonnerre+0.00on par

UPI-ONM+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tonnerre ↓

UPI-ONM →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Tonnerre or draw

77%

Tonnerre or UPI-ONM

72%

Draw or UPI-ONM

51%

Winning margin

Tonnerre wins by 2+

23%

UPI-ONM wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Tonnerre 1+ goals

73%

Tonnerre 2+ goals

38%

Tonnerre 3+ goals

15%

UPI-ONM 1+ goals

55%

UPI-ONM 2+ goals

19%

UPI-ONM 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Tonnerre (draw refunded)

68%

UPI-ONM (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tonnerre at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.87 · 85 matches

UPI-ONM away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.60 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tonnerre attack 1.04 + UPI-ONM defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.32

UPI-ONM attack 0.73 + Tonnerre defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tonnerre scores more

49%

level

28%

UPI-ONM scores more

23%

Tonnerre at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tonnerre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff