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UPI-ONM vs Esae — Championnat National 2019

UPI-ONM
UPI-ONM
FT
0 – 2
Esae
Esae
12/18/2019Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 8Terrain Campus Abomey Calavi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

UPI-ONM25%
×Draw28%
Esae47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UPI-ONM
0.87
Esae
1.31

Esae creates 51% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 27 away

creates per match

UPI-ONM
0.89
Esae
1.30

allows per match

UPI-ONM
1.31
Esae
0.85

finishing

UPI-ONM+0.00on par
Esae+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UPI-ONM ↓

Esae →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

UPI-ONM or draw
53%
UPI-ONM or Esae
72%
Draw or Esae
75%

Winning margin

UPI-ONM wins by 2+
8%
Esae wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

UPI-ONM 1+ goals
58%
UPI-ONM 2+ goals
22%
UPI-ONM 3+ goals
6%
Esae 1+ goals
73%
Esae 2+ goals
38%
Esae 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

UPI-ONM (draw refunded)
35%
Esae (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UPI-ONM at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.31 · 81 matches

Esae away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UPI-ONM attack 0.89 + Esae defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.87

Esae attack 1.30 + UPI-ONM defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

UPI-ONM scores more
25%
level
28%
Esae scores more
47%

Esae at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Esae will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: UPI-ONM 0–2 Esae

Esae beat UPI-ONM 2-0 in Championnat National on December 18, 2019.

The match was played at Terrain Campus Abomey Calavi in Abomey Calavi.