UPI-ONM 2–3 AS Sobemap: Result & Stats

UPI-ONM

FT

2 – 3

AS Sobemap

10/12/2019

Championnat National · Round 1Terrain Campus Abomey Calavi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

UPI-ONM30%

×Draw30%

AS Sobemap40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UPI-ONMExpected goals in this matchAS Sobemap

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.13

UPI-ONM

0.94

AS Sobemap

1.13

AS Sobemap creates 20% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 108 away

0.89

creates per match

0.94

1.32

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

UPI-ONM

0.89

AS Sobemap

0.94

allows per match

UPI-ONM

1.32

AS Sobemap

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UPI-ONM+0.00on par

AS Sobemap+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UPI-ONM ↓

AS Sobemap →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

UPI-ONM or draw

60%

UPI-ONM or AS Sobemap

70%

Draw or AS Sobemap

70%

Winning margin

UPI-ONM wins by 2+

11%

AS Sobemap wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

UPI-ONM 1+ goals

61%

UPI-ONM 2+ goals

24%

UPI-ONM 3+ goals

7%

AS Sobemap 1+ goals

68%

AS Sobemap 2+ goals

31%

AS Sobemap 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

UPI-ONM (draw refunded)

43%

AS Sobemap (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UPI-ONM at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.32 · 85 matches

AS Sobemap away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.98 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UPI-ONM attack 0.89 + AS Sobemap defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.94

AS Sobemap attack 0.94 + UPI-ONM defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

UPI-ONM scores more

30%

level

30%

AS Sobemap scores more

40%

AS Sobemap at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "AS Sobemap will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff