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AS Sobemap vs UPI-ONM — Championnat National 2019

AS Sobemap
AS Sobemap
FT
1 – 2
UPI-ONM
UPI-ONM
3/25/2023Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Relegation Round - 3Stade Municipal d'Avrankou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

AS Sobemap51%
×Draw28%
UPI-ONM21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Sobemap
1.34
UPI-ONM
0.74

AS Sobemap creates 81% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 90 away

creates per match

AS Sobemap
1.09
UPI-ONM
0.73

allows per match

AS Sobemap
0.76
UPI-ONM
1.59

finishing

AS Sobemap+0.00on par
UPI-ONM+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Sobemap ↓

UPI-ONM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

AS Sobemap or draw
79%
AS Sobemap or UPI-ONM
72%
Draw or UPI-ONM
49%

Winning margin

AS Sobemap wins by 2+
24%
UPI-ONM wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

AS Sobemap 1+ goals
74%
AS Sobemap 2+ goals
39%
AS Sobemap 3+ goals
15%
UPI-ONM 1+ goals
52%
UPI-ONM 2+ goals
17%
UPI-ONM 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

AS Sobemap (draw refunded)
71%
UPI-ONM (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Sobemap at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.76 · 112 matches

UPI-ONM away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.59 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Sobemap attack 1.09 + UPI-ONM defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.34

UPI-ONM attack 0.73 + AS Sobemap defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

AS Sobemap scores more
51%
level
28%
UPI-ONM scores more
21%

AS Sobemap at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "AS Sobemap will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AS Sobemap vs UPI-ONM

UPI-ONM beat AS Sobemap 2-1 in Championnat National on March 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Municipal d'Avrankou in Avrankou.