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Upesciems vs Spēks — Cup 2020

Upesciems
Upesciems
FT
2 – 4
Spēks
Spēks
7/18/2021CupCup · 2nd RoundUpesciems pilsētas stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Upesciems14%
×Draw15%
Spēks71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Upesciems
1.25
Spēks
2.92

Spēks creates 134% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Upesciems
1.00
Spēks
2.50

allows per match

Upesciems
3.33
Spēks
1.50

finishing

Upesciems+0.00on par
Spēks+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Upesciems ↓

Spēks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Upesciems or draw
29%
Upesciems or Spēks
85%
Draw or Spēks
86%

Winning margin

Upesciems wins by 2+
5%
Spēks wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

Upesciems 1+ goals
71%
Upesciems 2+ goals
36%
Upesciems 3+ goals
13%
Spēks 1+ goals
94%
Spēks 2+ goals
78%
Spēks 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Upesciems (draw refunded)
16%
Spēks (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Upesciems at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

Spēks away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Upesciems attack 1.00 + Spēks defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Spēks attack 2.50 + Upesciems defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Upesciems scores more
14%
level
15%
Spēks scores more
71%

Spēks at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Spēks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Upesciems 2–4 Spēks

Spēks beat Upesciems 4-2 in Cup on July 18, 2021.

The match was played at Upesciems pilsētas stadions in Upesciems.