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Upesciems vs Limbaži — Cup 2020

Upesciems
Upesciems
FT
1 – 3
Limbaži
Limbaži
8/3/2020CupCup · 1st RoundUpesciems pilsētas stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Upesciems32%
×Draw17%
Limbaži51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Upesciems
2.71
Limbaži
3.38

Limbaži creates 25% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Upesciems
1.00
Limbaži
3.43

allows per match

Upesciems
3.33
Limbaži
4.43

finishing

Upesciems+0.00on par
Limbaži+0.00on par

Total goals

94%Over
  • Over94
  • Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

90%Yes
  • Yes90
  • No10

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Upesciems ↓

Limbaži →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–24%
1–34%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–34%
4–43%

Most likely 2–3 (6%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
94%6%3.5
84%16%4.5
70%30%

Double chance

Upesciems or draw
49%
Upesciems or Limbaži
83%
Draw or Limbaži
68%

Winning margin

Upesciems wins by 2+
18%
Limbaži wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Upesciems 1+ goals
93%
Upesciems 2+ goals
75%
Upesciems 3+ goals
50%
Limbaži 1+ goals
96%
Limbaži 2+ goals
84%
Limbaži 3+ goals
64%

Draw no bet

Upesciems (draw refunded)
39%
Limbaži (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
88%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Upesciems at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

Limbaži away — creates 3.43, concedes 4.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Upesciems attack 1.00 + Limbaži defence 4.43 → ÷2 → 2.71

Limbaži attack 3.43 + Upesciems defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 3.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Upesciems scores more
32%
level
17%
Limbaži scores more
51%

Limbaži at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Limbaži will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Upesciems 1–3 Limbaži

Limbaži beat Upesciems 3-1 in Cup on August 3, 2020.

The match was played at Upesciems pilsētas stadions in Upesciems.