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UPDF vs Tooro United — Premier League 2019

UPDF
UPDF
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tooro United
Tooro United
4/19/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 26Bombo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

UPDF62%
×Draw22%
Tooro United16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UPDF
1.83
Tooro United
0.79

UPDF creates 132% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 27 away

creates per match

UPDF
1.00
Tooro United
0.59

allows per match

UPDF
0.99
Tooro United
2.67

finishing

UPDF+0.00on par
Tooro United+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UPDF ↓

Tooro United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

UPDF or draw
84%
UPDF or Tooro United
78%
Draw or Tooro United
38%

Winning margin

UPDF wins by 2+
36%
Tooro United wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

UPDF 1+ goals
84%
UPDF 2+ goals
54%
UPDF 3+ goals
28%
Tooro United 1+ goals
55%
Tooro United 2+ goals
19%
Tooro United 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

UPDF (draw refunded)
80%
Tooro United (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UPDF at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.99 · 87 matches

Tooro United away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.67 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UPDF attack 1.00 + Tooro United defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Tooro United attack 0.59 + UPDF defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

UPDF scores more
62%
level
22%
Tooro United scores more
16%

UPDF at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "UPDF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UPDF vs Tooro United

UPDF beat Tooro United 1-0 in Premier League on April 19, 2022.

The match was played at Bombo Stadium in Bombo.