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UPDF vs Mbarara City — Premier League 2019

UPDF
UPDF
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Mbarara City
Mbarara City
11/6/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Bombo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

UPDF47%
×Draw29%
Mbarara City24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UPDF
1.30
Mbarara City
0.85

UPDF creates 53% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 86 away

creates per match

UPDF
1.00
Mbarara City
0.72

allows per match

UPDF
0.99
Mbarara City
1.60

finishing

UPDF+0.00on par
Mbarara City+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UPDF ↓

Mbarara City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

UPDF or draw
76%
UPDF or Mbarara City
71%
Draw or Mbarara City
53%

Winning margin

UPDF wins by 2+
22%
Mbarara City wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

UPDF 1+ goals
73%
UPDF 2+ goals
37%
UPDF 3+ goals
14%
Mbarara City 1+ goals
57%
Mbarara City 2+ goals
21%
Mbarara City 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

UPDF (draw refunded)
66%
Mbarara City (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UPDF at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.99 · 87 matches

Mbarara City away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.60 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UPDF attack 1.00 + Mbarara City defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Mbarara City attack 0.72 + UPDF defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

UPDF scores more
47%
level
29%
Mbarara City scores more
24%

UPDF at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "UPDF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UPDF vs Mbarara City

UPDF beat Mbarara City 2-1 in Premier League on November 6, 2024.

The match was played at Bombo Stadium in Bombo.