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UPDF vs Mbale Heroes — Premier League 2019

UPDF
UPDF
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mbale Heroes
Mbale Heroes
12/11/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Bombo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

UPDF64%
×Draw21%
Mbale Heroes14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UPDF
1.90
Mbale Heroes
0.76

UPDF creates 150% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 15 away

creates per match

UPDF
1.00
Mbale Heroes
0.53

allows per match

UPDF
0.99
Mbale Heroes
2.80

finishing

UPDF+0.00on par
Mbale Heroes+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UPDF ↓

Mbale Heroes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

UPDF or draw
86%
UPDF or Mbale Heroes
79%
Draw or Mbale Heroes
36%

Winning margin

UPDF wins by 2+
39%
Mbale Heroes wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

UPDF 1+ goals
85%
UPDF 2+ goals
56%
UPDF 3+ goals
29%
Mbale Heroes 1+ goals
53%
Mbale Heroes 2+ goals
18%
Mbale Heroes 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

UPDF (draw refunded)
82%
Mbale Heroes (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UPDF at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.99 · 87 matches

Mbale Heroes away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UPDF attack 1.00 + Mbale Heroes defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

Mbale Heroes attack 0.53 + UPDF defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

UPDF scores more
64%
level
21%
Mbale Heroes scores more
14%

UPDF at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "UPDF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UPDF vs Mbale Heroes

UPDF and Mbale Heroes drew 1-1 in Premier League on December 11, 2024.

The match was played at Bombo Stadium in Bombo.