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UPDF vs Maroons — Premier League 2019

UPDF
UPDF
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Maroons
Maroons
4/16/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 24Bombo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

UPDF42%
×Draw29%
Maroons29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UPDF
1.21
Maroons
0.96

UPDF creates 26% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 71 away

creates per match

UPDF
1.00
Maroons
0.92

allows per match

UPDF
0.99
Maroons
1.42

finishing

UPDF+0.00on par
Maroons+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UPDF ↓

Maroons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

UPDF or draw
71%
UPDF or Maroons
71%
Draw or Maroons
58%

Winning margin

UPDF wins by 2+
18%
Maroons wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

UPDF 1+ goals
70%
UPDF 2+ goals
34%
UPDF 3+ goals
12%
Maroons 1+ goals
62%
Maroons 2+ goals
25%
Maroons 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

UPDF (draw refunded)
59%
Maroons (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UPDF at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.99 · 87 matches

Maroons away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.42 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UPDF attack 1.00 + Maroons defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.21

Maroons attack 0.92 + UPDF defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

UPDF scores more
42%
level
29%
Maroons scores more
29%

UPDF at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "UPDF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: UPDF 2–1 Maroons

UPDF beat Maroons 2-1 in Premier League on April 16, 2025.

The match was played at Bombo Stadium in Bombo.