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UPDF vs Lugazi — Premier League 2019

UPDF
UPDF
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lugazi
Lugazi
9/19/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Bombo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

UPDF46%
×Draw32%
Lugazi22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UPDF
1.11
Lugazi
0.66

UPDF creates 68% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 30 away

creates per match

UPDF
1.00
Lugazi
0.33

allows per match

UPDF
0.99
Lugazi
1.23

finishing

UPDF+0.00on par
Lugazi+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UPDF ↓

Lugazi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

UPDF or draw
78%
UPDF or Lugazi
68%
Draw or Lugazi
54%

Winning margin

UPDF wins by 2+
20%
Lugazi wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

UPDF 1+ goals
67%
UPDF 2+ goals
30%
UPDF 3+ goals
10%
Lugazi 1+ goals
48%
Lugazi 2+ goals
14%
Lugazi 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

UPDF (draw refunded)
68%
Lugazi (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UPDF at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.99 · 87 matches

Lugazi away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UPDF attack 1.00 + Lugazi defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Lugazi attack 0.33 + UPDF defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

UPDF scores more
46%
level
32%
Lugazi scores more
22%

UPDF at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "UPDF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UPDF 1 – 0 Lugazi

UPDF beat Lugazi 1-0 in Premier League on September 19, 2024.

The match was played at Bombo Stadium in Bombo.