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UPDF vs Kyetume — Premier League 2019

UPDF
UPDF
FT
4 – 2
Kyetume
Kyetume
A. Kitatta 63'
S. Kintu 45+1'
C. Kamagu 10'
J. Begisa 8'
S. Kabuye 74'
E. Kaye 1'
4/17/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Bombo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

UPDF50%
×Draw27%
Kyetume24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UPDF
1.44
Kyetume
0.90

UPDF creates 60% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 26 away

creates per match

UPDF
1.00
Kyetume
0.81

allows per match

UPDF
0.99
Kyetume
1.88

finishing

UPDF+0.00on par
Kyetume+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UPDF ↓

Kyetume →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

UPDF or draw
76%
UPDF or Kyetume
73%
Draw or Kyetume
50%

Winning margin

UPDF wins by 2+
25%
Kyetume wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

UPDF 1+ goals
76%
UPDF 2+ goals
42%
UPDF 3+ goals
18%
Kyetume 1+ goals
59%
Kyetume 2+ goals
23%
Kyetume 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

UPDF (draw refunded)
68%
Kyetume (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UPDF at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.99 · 87 matches

Kyetume away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.88 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UPDF attack 1.00 + Kyetume defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.44

Kyetume attack 0.81 + UPDF defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

UPDF scores more
50%
level
27%
Kyetume scores more
24%

UPDF at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "UPDF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
E. Kaye
8'
J. Begisa
10'
C. Kamagu
25'
D. Ssekitoreko← D. Ssekitoreko
38'
39'
S. Kintu
45+1'
S. Kintu
45+2'
S. Kintu
45+2'
S. Kintu
46'
B. Buyala← B. Buyala
46'
A. Feni← A. Feni
47'
C. Ssebutinde← C. Ssebutinde
62'
S. Mansoor← S. Mansoor
62'
C. Kambugu← C. Kambugu
63'
A. Kitatta
70'
S. Kabuye← S. Kabuye
73'
E. Katende← E. Katende
74'
S. Kabuye
80'
D. Okwir← D. Okwir
80'
K. Brian← K. Brian
89'
89'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UPDF 4 – 2 Kyetume

UPDF beat Kyetume 4-2 in Premier League on April 17, 2021.

Goals: E. Kaye (1'), J. Begisa (8'), C. Kamagu (10'), S. Kintu (45+1'), A. Kitatta (63'), S. Kabuye (74').

The match was played at Bombo Stadium in Bombo.