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UPDF vs Busoga United — Premier League 2019

UPDF
UPDF
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Busoga United
Busoga United
10/12/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Bombo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

UPDF48%
×Draw27%
Busoga United25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UPDF
1.39
Busoga United
0.92

UPDF creates 51% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 69 away

creates per match

UPDF
1.00
Busoga United
0.84

allows per match

UPDF
0.99
Busoga United
1.78

finishing

UPDF+0.00on par
Busoga United+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UPDF ↓

Busoga United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

UPDF or draw
75%
UPDF or Busoga United
73%
Draw or Busoga United
52%

Winning margin

UPDF wins by 2+
23%
Busoga United wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

UPDF 1+ goals
75%
UPDF 2+ goals
40%
UPDF 3+ goals
16%
Busoga United 1+ goals
60%
Busoga United 2+ goals
23%
Busoga United 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

UPDF (draw refunded)
66%
Busoga United (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UPDF at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.99 · 87 matches

Busoga United away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.78 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UPDF attack 1.00 + Busoga United defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.39

Busoga United attack 0.84 + UPDF defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

UPDF scores more
48%
level
27%
Busoga United scores more
25%

UPDF at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "UPDF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: UPDF 3–2 Busoga United

UPDF beat Busoga United 3-2 in Premier League on October 12, 2022.

The match was played at Bombo Stadium in Bombo.