UPDF 0–0 Buhimba Saints: Result & Stats

UPDF

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Buhimba Saints

2/13/2026

Premier League · Round 16Bombo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

UPDF65%

×Draw21%

Buhimba Saints14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UPDFExpected goals in this matchBuhimba Saints

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

0.74

UPDF

1.93

Buhimba Saints

0.74

UPDF creates 161% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 14 away

1.00

creates per match

0.50

0.99

allows per match

2.86

creates per match

UPDF

1.00

Buhimba Saints

0.50

allows per match

UPDF

0.99

Buhimba Saints

2.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UPDF+0.00on par

Buhimba Saints+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UPDF ↓

Buhimba Saints →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

UPDF or draw

86%

UPDF or Buhimba Saints

79%

Draw or Buhimba Saints

35%

Winning margin

UPDF wins by 2+

40%

Buhimba Saints wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

UPDF 1+ goals

85%

UPDF 2+ goals

57%

UPDF 3+ goals

30%

Buhimba Saints 1+ goals

52%

Buhimba Saints 2+ goals

17%

Buhimba Saints 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

UPDF (draw refunded)

83%

Buhimba Saints (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UPDF at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.99 · 87 matches

Buhimba Saints away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UPDF attack 1.00 + Buhimba Saints defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 1.93

Buhimba Saints attack 0.50 + UPDF defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

UPDF scores more

65%

level

21%

Buhimba Saints scores more

14%

UPDF at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "UPDF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff