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UOR №5 U20 vs Tambov U20 — Youth Championship 2026

UOR №5 U20
UOR №5 U20
FT
2 – 4
Tambov U20
Tambov U20
5/5/2021Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Lower Table Round - 6Stadion Master-Saturn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

UOR №5 U2042%
×Draw22%
Tambov U2036%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UOR №5 U20
1.94
Tambov U20
1.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 24 away

creates per match

UOR №5 U20
1.26
Tambov U20
1.25

allows per match

UOR №5 U20
2.35
Tambov U20
2.63

finishing

UOR №5 U20+0.00on par
Tambov U20+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UOR №5 U20 ↓

Tambov U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

UOR №5 U20 or draw
64%
UOR №5 U20 or Tambov U20
78%
Draw or Tambov U20
58%

Winning margin

UOR №5 U20 wins by 2+
23%
Tambov U20 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

UOR №5 U20 1+ goals
86%
UOR №5 U20 2+ goals
58%
UOR №5 U20 3+ goals
30%
Tambov U20 1+ goals
83%
Tambov U20 2+ goals
54%
Tambov U20 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

UOR №5 U20 (draw refunded)
53%
Tambov U20 (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UOR №5 U20 at home — creates 1.26, concedes 2.35 · 66 matches

Tambov U20 away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.63 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UOR №5 U20 attack 1.26 + Tambov U20 defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 1.94

Tambov U20 attack 1.25 + UOR №5 U20 defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

UOR №5 U20 scores more
42%
level
22%
Tambov U20 scores more
36%

UOR №5 U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "UOR №5 U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UOR №5 U20 vs Tambov U20

Tambov U20 beat UOR №5 U20 4-2 in Youth Championship on May 5, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Master-Saturn in Yegoryevsk.