UOR №5 U20 0–1 Strogino U20: Result & Stats

UOR №5 U20

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Strogino U20

7/19/2024

Youth Championship · Round 15Stadion Master-Saturn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

UOR №5 U2032%

×Draw22%

Strogino U2045%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UOR №5 U20Expected goals in this matchStrogino U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.90

UOR №5 U20

1.58

Strogino U20

1.90

Strogino U20 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 56 away

1.26

creates per match

1.45

2.35

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

UOR №5 U20

1.26

Strogino U20

1.45

allows per match

UOR №5 U20

2.35

Strogino U20

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UOR №5 U20+0.00on par

Strogino U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UOR №5 U20 ↓

Strogino U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

UOR №5 U20 or draw

55%

UOR №5 U20 or Strogino U20

78%

Draw or Strogino U20

68%

Winning margin

UOR №5 U20 wins by 2+

15%

Strogino U20 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

UOR №5 U20 1+ goals

79%

UOR №5 U20 2+ goals

47%

UOR №5 U20 3+ goals

21%

Strogino U20 1+ goals

85%

Strogino U20 2+ goals

56%

Strogino U20 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

UOR №5 U20 (draw refunded)

42%

Strogino U20 (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UOR №5 U20 at home — creates 1.26, concedes 2.35 · 66 matches

Strogino U20 away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.91 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UOR №5 U20 attack 1.26 + Strogino U20 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.58

Strogino U20 attack 1.45 + UOR №5 U20 defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

UOR №5 U20 scores more

32%

level

22%

Strogino U20 scores more

45%

Strogino U20 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Strogino U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff