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UOR №5 U20 vs Lokomotiv Moskva U20 — Youth Championship 2026

UOR №5 U20
UOR №5 U20
FT
0 – 3
Lokomotiv Moskva U20
Lokomotiv Moskva U20
M. Petrov 76'
T. Kasimov 75'
G. Borisenko 58' (pen)
11/21/2020Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 10Stadion Master-Saturn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

UOR №5 U2018%
×Draw20%
Lokomotiv Moskva U2062%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UOR №5 U20
1.06
Lokomotiv Moskva U20
2.17

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 creates 105% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 21 away

creates per match

UOR №5 U20
1.26
Lokomotiv Moskva U20
2.00

allows per match

UOR №5 U20
2.35
Lokomotiv Moskva U20
0.86

finishing

UOR №5 U20+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Moskva U20+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UOR №5 U20 ↓

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

UOR №5 U20 or draw
38%
UOR №5 U20 or Lokomotiv Moskva U20
80%
Draw or Lokomotiv Moskva U20
82%

Winning margin

UOR №5 U20 wins by 2+
6%
Lokomotiv Moskva U20 wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

UOR №5 U20 1+ goals
65%
UOR №5 U20 2+ goals
29%
UOR №5 U20 3+ goals
9%
Lokomotiv Moskva U20 1+ goals
89%
Lokomotiv Moskva U20 2+ goals
64%
Lokomotiv Moskva U20 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

UOR №5 U20 (draw refunded)
22%
Lokomotiv Moskva U20 (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UOR №5 U20 at home — creates 1.26, concedes 2.35 · 66 matches

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UOR №5 U20 attack 1.26 + Lokomotiv Moskva U20 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.06

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 attack 2.00 + UOR №5 U20 defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

UOR №5 U20 scores more
18%
level
20%
Lokomotiv Moskva U20 scores more
62%

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moskva U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
58'
G. BorisenkoPenalty
75'
T. Kasimov
76'
M. Petrov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UOR №5 U20 vs Lokomotiv Moskva U20

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 beat UOR №5 U20 3-0 in Youth Championship on November 21, 2020.

Goals: G. Borisenko (58' pen), T. Kasimov (75'), M. Petrov (76').

The match was played at Stadion Master-Saturn in Yegoryevsk.