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UOR №5 U20 vs Chertanovo U20 — Youth Championship 2026

UOR №5 U20
UOR №5 U20
FT
5 – 5
Chertanovo U20
Chertanovo U20
4/14/2021Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Lower Table Round - 3Stadion Master-Saturn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

UOR №5 U2033%
×Draw22%
Chertanovo U2045%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UOR №5 U20
1.65
Chertanovo U20
1.94

Chertanovo U20 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 73 away

creates per match

UOR №5 U20
1.26
Chertanovo U20
1.53

allows per match

UOR №5 U20
2.35
Chertanovo U20
2.05

finishing

UOR №5 U20+0.00on par
Chertanovo U20+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UOR №5 U20 ↓

Chertanovo U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

UOR №5 U20 or draw
55%
UOR №5 U20 or Chertanovo U20
78%
Draw or Chertanovo U20
67%

Winning margin

UOR №5 U20 wins by 2+
16%
Chertanovo U20 wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

UOR №5 U20 1+ goals
81%
UOR №5 U20 2+ goals
49%
UOR №5 U20 3+ goals
23%
Chertanovo U20 1+ goals
86%
Chertanovo U20 2+ goals
58%
Chertanovo U20 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

UOR №5 U20 (draw refunded)
43%
Chertanovo U20 (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UOR №5 U20 at home — creates 1.26, concedes 2.35 · 66 matches

Chertanovo U20 away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.05 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UOR №5 U20 attack 1.26 + Chertanovo U20 defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.65

Chertanovo U20 attack 1.53 + UOR №5 U20 defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

UOR №5 U20 scores more
33%
level
22%
Chertanovo U20 scores more
45%

Chertanovo U20 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chertanovo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: UOR №5 U20 5–5 Chertanovo U20

UOR №5 U20 and Chertanovo U20 drew 5-5 in Youth Championship on April 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Master-Saturn in Yegoryevsk.