UOR №5 U20 vs Arsenal Tula U20 — Youth Championship 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 39+ matches
UOR №5 U2029%
Arsenal Tula U2049%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Arsenal Tula U20 creates 34% more chances
Season form · 66 home / 39 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over65
- Under35
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes65
- No35
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
UOR №5 U20 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
UOR №5 U20 at home — creates 1.26, concedes 2.35 · 66 matches
Arsenal Tula U20 away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.59 · 39 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
UOR №5 U20 attack 1.26 + Arsenal Tula U20 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.43
Arsenal Tula U20 attack 1.49 + UOR №5 U20 defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.92
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
Arsenal Tula U20 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "Arsenal Tula U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Dinamo Moskva U19
CSKA Moskva U19
Lokomotiv Moskva U19
Spartak Moskva U19Arsenal Tula U20
Zenit U19
Tambov U20
Akhmat Grozny U20
Sochi U20
Krasnodar U19
Rostov U19
Ural U20
Rubin Kazan U20
Orenburg U19
Ufa U20If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
UOR №5 U20 host Arsenal Tula U20 on Tuesday, 27 July 2021 at 13:00. The match is part of the Youth Championship 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: UOR №5 U20 vs Arsenal Tula U20
UOR №5 U20 and Arsenal Tula U20 drew 1-1 in Youth Championship on July 27, 2021.
The match was played at Stadion Master-Saturn in Yegoryevsk.