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UOR №5 U20 vs Akhmat Grozny U20 — Youth Championship 2026

UOR №5 U20
UOR №5 U20
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Akhmat Grozny U20
Akhmat Grozny U20
10/6/2023Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 13Leon Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

UOR №5 U2038%
×Draw23%
Akhmat Grozny U2039%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UOR №5 U20
1.69
Akhmat Grozny U20
1.72

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 90 away

creates per match

UOR №5 U20
1.26
Akhmat Grozny U20
1.09

allows per match

UOR №5 U20
2.35
Akhmat Grozny U20
2.13

finishing

UOR №5 U20+0.00on par
Akhmat Grozny U20+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UOR №5 U20 ↓

Akhmat Grozny U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

UOR №5 U20 or draw
61%
UOR №5 U20 or Akhmat Grozny U20
77%
Draw or Akhmat Grozny U20
62%

Winning margin

UOR №5 U20 wins by 2+
19%
Akhmat Grozny U20 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

UOR №5 U20 1+ goals
82%
UOR №5 U20 2+ goals
50%
UOR №5 U20 3+ goals
24%
Akhmat Grozny U20 1+ goals
82%
Akhmat Grozny U20 2+ goals
51%
Akhmat Grozny U20 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

UOR №5 U20 (draw refunded)
49%
Akhmat Grozny U20 (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UOR №5 U20 at home — creates 1.26, concedes 2.35 · 66 matches

Akhmat Grozny U20 away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.13 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UOR №5 U20 attack 1.26 + Akhmat Grozny U20 defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.69

Akhmat Grozny U20 attack 1.09 + UOR №5 U20 defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

UOR №5 U20 scores more
38%
level
23%
Akhmat Grozny U20 scores more
39%

Akhmat Grozny U20 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Akhmat Grozny U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: UOR №5 U20 1–0 Akhmat Grozny U20

UOR №5 U20 beat Akhmat Grozny U20 1-0 in Youth Championship on October 6, 2023.

The match was played at Leon Arena in Ramenskoe.