Unterhaching U19 1–0 Stuttgart U19: Result & Stats

Unterhaching U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Stuttgart U19

B. Fröhlich 18'

11/13/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 9Alpenbauer Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Unterhaching U1923%

×Draw19%

Stuttgart U1958%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unterhaching U19Expected goals in this matchStuttgart U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

2.42

Unterhaching U19

1.48

Stuttgart U19

2.42

Stuttgart U19 creates 64% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 74 away

1.70

creates per match

2.74

2.09

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Unterhaching U19

1.70

Stuttgart U19

2.74

allows per match

Unterhaching U19

2.09

Stuttgart U19

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unterhaching U19+0.00on par

Stuttgart U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unterhaching U19 ↓

Stuttgart U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Unterhaching U19 or draw

42%

Unterhaching U19 or Stuttgart U19

81%

Draw or Stuttgart U19

77%

Winning margin

Unterhaching U19 wins by 2+

10%

Stuttgart U19 wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Unterhaching U19 1+ goals

77%

Unterhaching U19 2+ goals

43%

Unterhaching U19 3+ goals

19%

Stuttgart U19 1+ goals

91%

Stuttgart U19 2+ goals

69%

Stuttgart U19 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Unterhaching U19 (draw refunded)

28%

Stuttgart U19 (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unterhaching U19 at home — creates 1.70, concedes 2.09 · 56 matches

Stuttgart U19 away — creates 2.74, concedes 1.27 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unterhaching U19 attack 1.70 + Stuttgart U19 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.48

Stuttgart U19 attack 2.74 + Unterhaching U19 defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Unterhaching U19 scores more

23%

level

19%

Stuttgart U19 scores more

58%

Stuttgart U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Stuttgart U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

B. Fröhlich

46'

P. Reinhardt← M. Sahin

48'

P. Fritschi

61'

L. Raimund← N. Winkler

61'

T. Barth← L. Battista

76'

E. Widmann← B. Boakye

79'

83'

83'

87'

90+4'

F. Lautenbacher← D. Girtler

90'

N. Nollenberger← E. Haxhosaj

Unterhaching

Stuttgart

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: M. Unterberger

79'▲D. Ajeti←▼T. Hoops

90+4'▲F. Lautenbacher←▼D. Girtler

90'▲N. Nollenberger←▼E. Haxhosaj

Unterhaching U19 substitutes

AjetiLautenbacherNollenbergerJamontsAmbachPförtnerDressel

Manager: N. Willig

46'▲P. Reinhardt←▼M. Sahin

61'▲L. Raimund←▼N. Winkler

61'▲T. Barth←▼L. Battista

76'▲E. Widmann←▼B. Boakye

87'▲P. König←▼Y. Torres

Stuttgart U19 substitutes

ReinhardtRaimundBarthWidmannKönigKuranyiSchulz

U19 Bundesliga: Unterhaching U19 1–0 Stuttgart U19

Unterhaching U19 beat Stuttgart U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on November 13, 2022.

Goals: B. Fröhlich (18').

The match was played at Alpenbauer Sportpark in Unterhaching.

Unterhaching U19 vs Stuttgart U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Unterhaching U19 1–0 Stuttgart U19