Unterhaching U19 3–0 Kickers Offenbach U19

Unterhaching U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Kickers Offenbach U19

D. Hausmann 66', 42', 40' (pen)

2/6/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 13Sportpark Unterhaching Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Unterhaching U1956%

×Draw20%

Kickers Offenbach U1924%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unterhaching U19Expected goals in this matchKickers Offenbach U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

1.53

Unterhaching U19

2.38

Kickers Offenbach U19

1.53

Unterhaching U19 creates 56% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 47 away

1.70

creates per match

0.98

2.09

allows per match

3.06

creates per match

Unterhaching U19

1.70

Kickers Offenbach U19

0.98

allows per match

Unterhaching U19

2.09

Kickers Offenbach U19

3.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unterhaching U19+0.00on par

Kickers Offenbach U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unterhaching U19 ↓

Kickers Offenbach U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Unterhaching U19 or draw

76%

Unterhaching U19 or Kickers Offenbach U19

80%

Draw or Kickers Offenbach U19

44%

Winning margin

Unterhaching U19 wins by 2+

35%

Kickers Offenbach U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Unterhaching U19 1+ goals

91%

Unterhaching U19 2+ goals

68%

Unterhaching U19 3+ goals

42%

Kickers Offenbach U19 1+ goals

78%

Kickers Offenbach U19 2+ goals

45%

Kickers Offenbach U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Unterhaching U19 (draw refunded)

70%

Kickers Offenbach U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unterhaching U19 at home — creates 1.70, concedes 2.09 · 56 matches

Kickers Offenbach U19 away — creates 0.98, concedes 3.06 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unterhaching U19 attack 1.70 + Kickers Offenbach U19 defence 3.06 → ÷2 → 2.38

Kickers Offenbach U19 attack 0.98 + Unterhaching U19 defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Unterhaching U19 scores more

56%

level

20%

Kickers Offenbach U19 scores more

24%

Unterhaching U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Unterhaching U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

D. HausmannPenalty

42'

D. Hausmann

46'

M. Aimene← U. Nassery

46'

Z. Daaou← B. von Hagen

58'

D. Starodid← C. Karakaş

64'

J. Gottmeier← F. Seidel

66'

D. Hausmann

72'

F. Roggermeier← A. Hirtlreiter

73'

B. Fröhlich← V. Zentrich

83'

Kim Dong-woo← S. Süsin

86'

N. Ortel← T. Obermeier

Unterhaching

Kickers

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽3

▼

▼

Manager: S. Teichmann

64'▲J. Gottmeier←▼F. Seidel

72'▲F. Roggermeier←▼A. Hirtlreiter

73'▲B. Fröhlich←▼V. Zentrich

86'▲N. Ortel←▼T. Obermeier

Unterhaching U19 substitutes

GottmeierRoggermeierFröhlichOrtelBarakatBucherManole

Manager: R. Trabert

46'▲M. Aimene←▼U. Nassery

46'▲Z. Daaou←▼B. von Hagen

58'▲D. Starodid←▼C. Karakaş

83'▲Kim Dong-woo←▼S. Süsin

Kickers Offenbach U19 substitutes

AimeneDaaouStarodidDong-wooMrveljReppelFurnari