Unterhaching U19 2–1 Eintracht Frankf U19

Unterhaching U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Eintracht Frankf U19

M. Krattenmacher 55'

B. Fröhlich 34'

E. Breir 48'

12/4/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 11Sportpark Unterhaching Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Unterhaching U1932%

×Draw21%

Eintracht Frankf U1948%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unterhaching U19Expected goals in this matchEintracht Frankf U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

2.18

Unterhaching U19

1.76

Eintracht Frankf U19

2.18

Eintracht Frankf U19 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 74 away

1.70

creates per match

2.28

2.09

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Unterhaching U19

1.70

Eintracht Frankf U19

2.28

allows per match

Unterhaching U19

2.09

Eintracht Frankf U19

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unterhaching U19+0.00on par

Eintracht Frankf U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unterhaching U19 ↓

Eintracht Frankf U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Unterhaching U19 or draw

52%

Unterhaching U19 or Eintracht Frankf U19

79%

Draw or Eintracht Frankf U19

68%

Winning margin

Unterhaching U19 wins by 2+

16%

Eintracht Frankf U19 wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Unterhaching U19 1+ goals

83%

Unterhaching U19 2+ goals

52%

Unterhaching U19 3+ goals

26%

Eintracht Frankf U19 1+ goals

89%

Eintracht Frankf U19 2+ goals

64%

Eintracht Frankf U19 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Unterhaching U19 (draw refunded)

40%

Eintracht Frankf U19 (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unterhaching U19 at home — creates 1.70, concedes 2.09 · 56 matches

Eintracht Frankf U19 away — creates 2.28, concedes 1.82 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unterhaching U19 attack 1.70 + Eintracht Frankf U19 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.76

Eintracht Frankf U19 attack 2.28 + Unterhaching U19 defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Unterhaching U19 scores more

32%

level

21%

Eintracht Frankf U19 scores more

48%

Eintracht Frankf U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Eintracht Frankf U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

48'

54'

55'

68'

F. Lautenbacher← L. Gabelunke

71'

T. Flick← A. Temur

72'

N. Nollenberger← A. Keller

78'

N. Werner← E. Breir

84'

M. Afşar← E. Baum

Unterhaching

Eintracht

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: M. Unterberger

54'▲D. Ajeti←▼F. Markert

68'▲F. Lautenbacher←▼L. Gabelunke

72'▲N. Nollenberger←▼A. Keller

Unterhaching U19 substitutes

AjetiLautenbacherNollenbergerSchulerJamontsAmbachDressel

Manager: D. Agovic

71'▲T. Flick←▼A. Temur

78'▲N. Werner←▼E. Breir

84'▲M. Afşar←▼E. Baum

Eintracht Frankf U19 substitutes

FlickWernerAfşarNathanielKleinerHellmannRottensteiner